Oscar Thoughts / Predictions 2024
Time for the Academy Awards again! It's kind of obvious this year for good reasons again ;0
Best Picture
- "American Fiction"
- "Anatomy of a Fall"
- "Barbie"
- "The Holdovers"
- "Killers of the Flower Moon"
- "Maestro"
- "Oppenheimer"
- "Past Lives"
- "Poor Things"
- "The Zone of Interest"
Who Will Win: Right off the bat (no pun intended) it's no wonder to say Nolan finally gets his due as Oppenheimer will sweep everything, including this. It would be a shock if anything else did even if there's some other great stuff. A month ago or so it seemed Holdovers could be a CODA style dark horse but it's been losing to Oppen lately, SO!..
Who Should Win: Oppenheimer! As a Nolan fan duh of course..but this is a darn good list of interesting picks
Best Director
- Jonathan Glazer, "The Zone of Interest"
- Yorgos Lanthimos, "Poor Things"
- Christopher Nolan, "Oppenheimer"
- Martin Scorsese, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
- Justine Triet, "Anatomy of a Fall"
Who Will Win: Oppenheimer, nuff said it's sweeping per above
Who Should Win: The most Nolan category to Nolan so duh ... even if I loved Poor Things and Killers by Scorsese
Best Actor
- Bradley Cooper, "Maestro"
- Colman Domingo, "Rustin"
- Paul Giamatti, "The Holdovers"
- Cillian Murphy, "Oppenheimer"
- Jeffrey Wright, "American Fiction"
Who Will Win: Again in most these it was "Oppenheimer was sweeping (for Murphy) but then Giamatti started to sweep but it's turning around" so while most say Murphy has it locked I do think if Nolan is the most Nolan in Director above , Giamatti is the closest thing to a second.. but I think Oppen just takes it all everywhere and so here's another big credit
Who Should Win: Both Murphy, a bit moreso, and Giamatti are fantastic. .. but love to Wright too underrated
Best Actress:
- Annette Bening, "Nyad"
- Lily Gladstone, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
- Sandra Hüller, "Anatomy of a Fall"
- Carey Mulligan, "Maestro"
- Emma Stone, "Poor Things"
Who Will Win: This is tough. It's here a "Stone-Off" of Emma vs Lily Stone and Gladstone... objectively Emma has been a favorite and is even better, but, Lily's diversity and trend setting realistically may give her that edge.. hard to say for sure
Who Should Win: Emma Stone all the way but again I wouldn't be upset with Lily because it represents the really solid Killers as well. But Poor Things was one of the "giving it all" type ones, IMO
Best Supporting Actor
- Sterling K. Brown, "American Fiction"
- Robert De Niro, "Killers of the Flower Moon"
- Robert Downey Jr., "Oppenheimer"
- Ryan Gosling, "Barbie"
- Mark Ruffalo, "Poor Things"
Who Will Win: Others will say RDJ has a clear lock, and he was amazing, sweeping elsewhere but there's reasons for almost anyone else in the category in the order of De Niro > big gap > Gosling for the ken memes <>= Ruffalo for the stella memes.. but at times there's been a Robert-Off that's been losing steam for DeNiro of late for RDJ
Who Should Win: No matter who loses the Robert-Off, we win! Personally DeNiro was slightly better but I "get" why RDJ is with a bit of the career redemption and return story post-Tony Stark
Best Supporting Actress
- Emily Blunt, "Oppenheimer"
- Danielle Brooks, "The Color Purple"
- America Ferrera, "Barbie"
- Jodie Foster, "Nyad"
- Da'Vine Joy Randolph, "The Holdovers"
Who Will Win: This is without a doubt clean sweep clear cut it's Joy Randolph for quality, diversity, everything no brainer it's her here and that Holdovers dark horse people story energy too (see Giamatti...)
Who Should Win: I'd have maybe gone Brooks or to a lesser extent Blunt instead but i get Randolph
Best Original Screenplay
- "Anatomy of a Fall"
- "The Holdovers"
- "Maestro"
- "May December"
- "Past Lives"
Who Will Win: Other would say, and wins, that it's Anatomy Of A Fall but i don't think it's quite clear... Holdovers could carry the momentum from others or maybe even here's one token Past Lives bone. Maybe that makes "give it a win" equal for Anatomy vs Past ..hmm.. all about tied.
Who Should Win: Past Lives was my favorite but Holdovers ain't too bad either
Best Adapted Screenplay
- "American Fiction"
- "Barbie"
- "Oppenheimer"
- "Poor Things"
- "The Zone of Interest"
Who Will Win: Is this where Barbenheimer equally squares off? I would say so but I think that they will instead split costumes, production , etc for some to Barbie instead of "serious technical awards" like this. So maybe Oppen then.. but also there's Poor Things and American Fiction here which are great. A fair quadrio split after the big ones. Some say American Fiction has it but that feels like it'd be the underdog of any other year than this sweeping one
Who Should Win: A case where I'd go Poor Things or American Fiction as some of my favorite favorite of last year..and Oppen has enough!
Best Visual Effects
- "The Creator"
- "Godzilla Minus One"
- "Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3"
- "Mission: Impossible - Dead Reckoning Part One"
- "Napoleon"
Who Will Win: Word is this is a tie between The Creator, because obviously, and Godzilla Minus One for that feel-good Japanese diverse factor.. both great films. Creator feels more traditionally Hollywood however.. and didn't they use to love Tom Cruise and Ridley Scott...
Who Should Win: Creator or GOTG for sci-fiiii always the best. But Gareth Edwards strengths are his action so I suppose that.
Best Animated Feature
- "The Boy and the Heron"
- "Elemental"
- "Nimona"
- "Robot Dreams"
- "Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse"
Who Will Win: A similiar "Hollywood vs Japan" of Spider-Verse 2 vs Boy and Heron. However I think in a way the sequel nature may drag down Spider, even if its better... and if Heron reminded me so much of Miyazaki's Spirited Away, which made anime history before, then, maybeee slightly that...
Who Should Win: Another case of no matter who loses we win of two great frontrunners... maybe a slight quality edge to Spider though
Best Costume Design
- "Barbie"
- "Killers of the Flower Moon"
- "Napoleon"
- "Oppenheimer"
- "Poor Things"
Who Will Win: Word is in some of these, per above, its Barbie vs ..well here swap Oppen for Poor Things. But isn't a colorful film of tropes and jokes and OUTFITS fit for this category??!! (I don't list it here but I see Barbie getting Original Song from one of its several, at least...)
Who Should Win: Give Barbie meme wins it needs them ! Distinct.. Poor Things is distinct too though... but also liked Napoleon and DeNiro's hats in their films...
Best Score
- "American Fiction"
- "Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny"
- "Killers of the Flower Moon"
- "Oppenheimer"
- "Poor Things"
Who Will Win: No question at all Oppenheimer.. it's a nolan film in a trending year!
Who Should Win: Good ol' Hans zimmer so yes Oppen is fine.. however, Poor Things is so weirdly good.. and Indiana Jones could have made, even if not as memorable as franchise, a "goodbye" for John Williams
We'll see what happens! May the jokes be good and the slaps be minimal
