Oscar Thoughts / Predictions 2022
Time for the Academy Awards again and back in March again... it will be interesting to see what is what with a season that has been both the samey for some picks but with more dark horses than ever so anything can happen if kind of middling overall.
Best Picture
- Belfast
- CODA
- Don’t Look Up
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- Nightmare Alley
- The Power of the Dog
- West Side Story
Who Will Win: Every year going in there's a film that is "the one" that wins this across shows whether it deserves it or not and this year it's been Power Of The Dog so that's the biggest contender. However CODA has been a big dark horse lately so it could be that or something more traditional like West Side Story or even Nightmare Alley Or Dune based on past praise.
Who Should Win: Dune is to my tastes and is probably the best movie on this list ... or Don't Look up , or Licorice Pizza, or Nightmare Alley...all of the more spicier picks that won't win! Power Of The Dog is FINE, I get it ...but we'll see
Best Director
- Paul Thomas Anderson (Licorice Pizza)
- Kenneth Branagh (Belfast)
- Jane Campion (The Power of the Dog)
- Ryûsuke Hamaguchi (Drive My Car)
- Steven Spielberg (West Side Story)
Who Will Win: Another case of Best Picture + Best Director nearly locked in Power Of The Dog. Belfast is possible too... or a Parasite-esque and deserved Drive My Car.
Who Should Win: To me this would be more Pizza vs Belfast vs Drive My Car over Power of the dog but all makes sense; it's hard to say
Best Actor
- Javier Bardem (Being the Ricardos)
- Benedict Cumberbatch (The Power of the Dog)
- Andrew Garfield (Tick, Tick … Boom!)
- Will Smith (King Richard)
- Denzel Washington (The Tragedy of Macbeth)
Who Will Win: Pre-season indicates this will finally be Will Smith's first Oscar but Best Picture trends could continue with the fantastic Cumberbatch or the buzz for Andrew Garfield
Who Should Win: I would pick Garfield, Washington, or Bardem of these.
Best Actress
- Jessica Chastain (The Eyes of Tammy Faye)
- Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter)
- Penélope Cruz (Parallel Mothers)
- Nicole Kidman (Being the Ricardos)
- Kristen Stewart (Spencer)
Who Will Win: Once again and so gladly Chastain has been sweeping because it just makes sense. Stewart could get what she deserves and I feel Colman or Cruz are dark horses
Who Should Win: Chastain indeed! Or Stewart with both being so amazing and originally underappreciated at release.
Best Supporting Actor
- Ciarán Hinds (Belfast)
- Troy Kotsur (CODA)
- Jesse Plemons (The Power of the Dog)
- J.K. Simmons (Being the Ricardos)
- Kodi Smit-McPhee (The Power of the Dog)
Who Will Win: Kotsur has been sweeping the pre-season which is so nice to see. It's a tough category that could go to one of the many others especially the Plemons vs Smit-McPhee Dog duo.
Who Should Win: No complaints for Kotsur what an underdog story yet also Hinds was fantastic.
Best Supporting Actress
- Jessie Buckley (The Lost Daughter)
- Ariana DeBose (West Side Story)
- Judi Dench (Belfast)
- Kirsten Dunst (The Power of the Dog)
- Aunjanue Ellis (King Richard)
Who Will Win: DeBose has been strong in the pre-season but once again Power Of The Dog's Dunst may sweep it all.
Who Should Win: It's hard to take a guess here but Dench again since I think Belfast should win some. DeBose is fine too.
Best Original Screenplay
- Belfast
- Don’t Look Up
- King Richard
- Licorice Pizza
- The Worst Person in the World (written by Eskil Vogt, Joachim Trier)
Who Will Win: This could be where Licorice Pizza actually wins or something like Belfast or Don't Look Up does.
Who Should Win: Licorice Pizza or Don't Look Up please for being so original and different it's the name of the award.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- CODA
- Drive My Car
- Dune
- The Lost Daughter
- The Power of the Dog
Who Will Win: Potential sweepers CODA vs Power Of The Dog faceoff here but Dune was such a strong adaptation. There's a Lost Daughter vibe somewhere at this show .
Who Should Win: DUNE PLEASE although fine with CODA, Dog, or Drive My Car.
Best Animated Feature
- Encanto
- Flee
- Luca
- The Mitchells vs. the Machines
- Raya and the Last Dragon
Who Will Win: Disney has this category on lock with 3 of 5 however as for which it's hard to say. Encanto and Raya seem to have more substance than the lowkey Luca and each with their own cultural representation significance making them most likely. In the public consciousness Encanto is more traditionally Disney so that may be the winner even if Raya is far better.
Who Should Win: MITCHELLS VS THE MACHINES IS THE BEST ON THIS LIST! So that even if the odds are low but it may be a slight dark horse. Of the Disney releases please Raya or Luca but perhaps in a way cheering for Flee to disrupt the system.
Best Visual Effects
- Dune
- Free Guy
- No Time to Die
- Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings
- Spider-Man: No Way Home
Who Will Win: Aside the unlisted other categories on this list (cinematography etc) which are more clear locks Dune is both the best film on this list and has some of the best effects however MCU could win another Oscar here for the popularity of Spidey or Shang-Chi or veneration for James Bond
Who Should Win: DUNE as always but would be happy for Spidey to get the Oscars it deserved more of.
Best Costume Design
- Cruella
- Cyrano
- Dune
- Nightmare Alley
- West Side Story
Who Will Win: Dune could if it pulls a Mad Max Fury Road style sweep of everything but Cruella has some of the most outrageous fashion.
Who Should Win: While of course Dune again please give Cyrano the award it deserves! Also Nightmare Alley should win at least one somewhere
Best Score
- Don’t Look Up
- Dune
- Encanto
- Parallel Mothers
- The Power of the Dog
Who Will Win: This seems like something where something boring such as Power Of The Dog gets it if it sweeps but hopefully it's a truthful Dune sweep. Encanto also has that Lin-Manuel Miranda + cultural bonus going on
Who Should Win: DUNE please but wouldn't mind Encanto since it's jamming
We'll see what happens!
