Oscar Thoughts / Predictions 2021
We're finally here! It feels in some ways like years since it's been an Oscar (remember Parasite?) But yet it's only 2-2.5 months later than it usually is. It feels some better stuff may have been held off on, but, there was some goodness. Just the same movies across categories too hmm hey at least it made it easier to type all this...
Best Picture
- The Father
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Mank
- Minari
- Nomadland
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7”
Who Will Win: With so many of the same movies it can be tough as that makes it almost equal so things could go to almost any. However, undercard reports seem to indicate that some top choices are Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, and Mank with Minari and Sound Of Metal not far behind. Moreso first three than latter 2, but.... I think it's a Nomadland vs Promising Young Woman overall.
Who Should Win: Personally? Judas and the Black Messiah or Minari with maybe Promising Young Woman. The under appreciated! Maybe a miracle can happen.
Best Director
- David Fincher, Mank
- Lee Isaac Chung, Minari
- Chloé Zhao, Nomadland
- Emerald Fennell, Promising Young Woman
- Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
Who Will Win: Here's a circumstance where Nomadland has even more of a clear chance especially considering who Chloe Zhao is for demographics . However, feeling Fincher is a classic type of pick old school Hollywood.
Who Should Win: Would not be wrong with Fincher or Zhao, or Fennell.
Best Actor
- Anthony Hopkins, The Father
- Gary Oldman, Mank
- Steven Yeun, Minari
- Riz Ahmed, Sound of Metal
- Chadwick Boseman, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Who Will Win: There was many wins in the undercards of Boseman posthumously. I can see it happen in a Ledger style move. His year 2020. However, some other close picks I would say almost any of the others with a near tie of Hopkins and Ahmed.
Who Should Win: I wouldn't be opposed to Boseman either but raw talent I'd have to go with Ahmed or Oldman I would say.
Best Actress
- Andra Day, The United States vs. Billie Holiday
- Vanessa Kirby, Pieces of a Woman
- Frances McDormand, Nomadland
- Carey Mulligan, Promising Young Woman
- Viola Davis, Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
Who Will Win: This is a bit harder to predict but Davis may ride Boseman's wave. Could also see Andra Day or Carey Mulligan, thaere's a top 3. McDormand too although undercard has forgotten her.
Who Should Win: Personally, I would go with Carey Mulligan. Please!
Best Supporting Actor
- Sacha Baron Cohen, The Trial of the Chicago 7
- Daniel Kaluuya, Judas and the Black Messiah
- Leslie Odom Jr., One Night in Miami
- Paul Raci, Sound of Metal
- Lakeith Stanfield, Judas and the Black Messiah
Who Will Win: This is a bit more unpredictable but Judas is quantity wise so either Stanfield or Kaluuya. Maybe Raci too, possible. Others less likely but maybe dark horse picks.
Who Should Win: Kaluuya, by far. Incredible. Otherwise I'd actually go with Raci too or potentially the novelty of seeing Sacha Baron Cohen win here while others win elewhere.
Best Supporting Actress
- Maria Bakalova, Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- Glenn Close, Hillbilly Elegy
- Olivia Colman, The Father
- Amanda Seyfried, Mank
- Yuh-Jung Youn, Minari
Who Will Win: The Academy loves Colman so could see her get that . Yet also , Baklova and Youn have been surprising niche picks from undercircuit.
Who Should Win: Baklova plz memes lol! But would be happy with most of these.
Best Original Screenplay
- Judas and the Black Messiah
- Minari
- Promising Young Woman
- Sound of Metal
- The Trial of the Chicago 7
Who Will Win: This is where Minari wins for sure it feels that vibe.
Who Should Win: This is where Judas can win please if not elsewhere. Or Promising Young Woman, same case I guess.
Best Adapted Screenplay
- The Father
- Nomadland
- Borat Subsequent Moviefilm
- One Night In Miami
- The White Tiger
Who Will Win: Seems like a spot for Nomadland to get something too but the Farther or Borat 2 could pick up here. Maybe Miami shock.
Best Animated Feature
- Onward
- Over the Moon
- A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon
- Soul
- Wolfwalkers
Who Will Win: Soul, without a doubt. Good Pixar is good Pixar. Sometimes something like Wolfwalkers might have some odds.
Best Visual Effects
- Love and Monsters
- The Midnight Sky
- Mulan
- The One and Only Ivan
- Tenet
Who Will Win: I could see this being Tenet's token pick or something dumb like Midnight Sky or Mulan knowing the Academy.
Who Should Win: Tenet, for a token pick. Yet also Love and Monsters for being the best thing on here with cool creatures or whatever.
Best Production Design
- The Father
- Mank
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- News of the World
- Tenet
Who Will Win: Mank by far due to old school Hollywood. However, Father / May Rainey tight play adaptions. Dark horse Tenet if doesn't get elsewhere
Best Costume Design
- Emma
- Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom
- Mank
- Mulan
- Pinocchio
Who Will Win: Hard to say, no comment really but potentially the historical Emma or Mank or Ma Rainey.
Best Score
- Da 5 Bloods
- Mank
- Minari
- News of the World
- Soul
Who Will Win: Can see this going to Soul or Minari.
We'll see what happens!
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